NOT a SWOT and We're Better for It
Speaker Geoffrey Ramsey, CEO and Co-Founder of eMarketer, first made an admission, "They gave me this title and I had to look up the definition." So, while his presentation was not a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats analysis of online vs. offline media, you could have written your own analysis by the time he finished his hour-long brain dump.
[ED. SPECIAL NOTICE: Geoff generously provided us with a summary, 31-slide version of his presentation available to us. Download the 5MB PPT file by right-clicking here.]
Fortunately, he was one of the few speakers to supply a printed copy of his presentation, in advance, to the audience. My fingers were not capable of moving quick enough, and right about now I'd be answering a lot of questions like "Why did you quote him as saying all online media buyers will be fired in two years".
He didn't say that by the way. In fact, the future looks quite bright. And not that kind of pie-in-the-sky, I-don't-know-why-this-is-working-it-just-is kind of bright we've seen before. Instead, while the entire media world is becoming more fragmented, online media of many forms is becoming more and more relevant.
Here are five Mega-Trends Geoffrey identified that are all interrelated and affect all media (his emphasis):
- Consumer skepticism and resistance to advertising
- Increasingly the consumer is in control
- Media fragmentation is out of control
- "Mass reach" efforts are being complemented by improved targeting -- to maximize efficiency
- Marketers are held to new levels of accountability
Consumers attitudes towards advertising are becoming increasingly negative. One statistic quoted from a Yankelovich Partners study said "65% feel constantly bombarded with too many marketing messages". This is hastening the rise of the empowered consumer. Personal video recorders, iPods, online search, pop-up blockers and the Do Not Call Registry were all identified as examples of consumer control.
Television, still the king of reach, is being impacted by these trends. The average household has 85 channel choices, simultaneous media usage is diverting attention from programming with lower ratings, and personal video recorders like Tivo allow consumers to skip commercials (which they do). The speaker asked whether there is a disconnect with these realities when last year's Upfront was up 15 percent. He quotes John Hayes, CMO of American Express "Where else in the world can you be convinced to pay more for a commodity that is experiencing diminishing returns?".
So, the speaker contends that "mass reach" is increasingly giving way to targeting. And not just online. Outdoor billboard are evolving to enable day-part specific messaging, products in the grocery aisle are "speaking" to you, and cable TV is an increasingly targeted television opportunity.
Meanwhile, online advertising spending increased by 21 percent from 2002 to 2003. Projections for 2004 growth range from Gartner's 3.2% ("What were they thinking?" asked Ramsey) to Forrester's 23 percent. "But we may all be wrong, because the first quarter looks like it increased 39 percent".
Which media stand to benefit from an increased emphasis on targeting? According to Ramsey those good for targeting are:
- Internet
- Radio
- Cable TV
- Magazines
- Direct Mail
While network TV, newspapers, and outdoor are "not so good".
According to Lightspeed Research conducted for Advertising Age in 2003, direct mail and Internet are the best medium for proving return on investment according to US marketing professionals. I suppose we may have already known that, but Ramsey also had a statistic showing that budgets for marketing managers that track their results grow twice as fast as those who do not.
So, what does the future hold? The future of advertising from the speaker's perspective is:
- Involving
- Measurable
- Personal
- Actionable
- Consumer-led
- Targeted
Accountability will finally come to TV with advertising measured at the ad level instead of the program level, and interactive television serving consumer demands. And, advertising will be increasingly AOD -- Advertising On Demand.
One last bit of advice that may sound contradictory coming from research syndicator. "Use syndicated research only as a guidepost - your own data is more actionable."
Even with his late afternoon second day time slot, he was still able to captivate the audience by delivering a stream of valuable insights. It was just that impressive.
