Masses Marvel at Mensches Metrics
Ok, maybe not masses. Being last session of day two took a bit of a toll on the crowd.
Anyone who has seen Geoffry Ramsey, CEO and founder of eMarketer, speak knows that his sessions are a massive brain dump of industry facts and figures. This year the session was held in a more conversational format with William Morrison, Director and Senior Analyst at JMP Securities, joining Ramsey on stage. The session entitled “AdTalk: Market Metric Mensches” was moderated by AD:TECH chair Susan Bratton. Ramsey played the role of Analyst to Morrison’s Futurist. Though the difference between the two roles is apparently quite slim.
Befitting the power-point two-step style of the presentation, I’m going to bullet a number of the interesting stats shared. By the way, these are from my notes. I can be wrong. After all, they are the mensches, not I.
- Total media expenditures are expected to grow at a fairly moderate pace of 5.4% this year.
- Internet media expenditures are expected to grow at a rate of 19-30% this year, depending upon whom you ask. This will make 2005 the third straight year of double-digit growth.
- Before the Internet bubble burst AOL alone accounted for almost 40% of the market capitalization of the sector.
- Today the relative market cap contribution of any one company is much smaller.
- In terms of reach for individual site, four are the clear leaders over all others. These are Yahoo, AOL, MSN and Google.
- But, online Ad Networks spanning multiple sites have filled in the reach gap with these top four.
- 2004 saw massive growth in total search expenditures, but also double-digit growth in non-search online media spend.
- Brand advertisers are expected to accelerate the growth of non-search media in 2005.
- Rack rate CPMs in the top media categories were in the range of $9-12 in 2004.
- But, certain niche sites like The Knot were able to garner much higher average CPM in the range of $40-$45.
- According to Morrison, these higher CPMs are still much lower than comparable offline media, such as bridal print publications.
- The previous year’s growth in search was described as HyperGrowth by Ramsey. And , now we are entering a period of still fast, but probably more healthier growth.
- Local, contextual, and behavioral targeting are on the rise.
- Cookie deletion is a problem, but it’s hard to say which studies are correct on the issue. For instance, while 77% of people say they know what a cookie is, only 30% can give you an accurate description.
- Average online expenditure for the top global brands is only 3-4 percent of total budgets. But, this is growing. In 2005, Daimler-Chrysler (#7) will spend almost 16 percent of its budget online.
- The number of U.S. households online currently outnumber China and Japan combined. Within three years, this will no longer be the case.
- In 2007, China may pass the US in terms of broadband enabled households.
- The biggest sites in most European and Asian countries are Google and MSN. Yahoo leads in Japan.
- Television is expected to be a big net loser of ad dollars in the coming years.
- 73 percent of national advertisers say they would put more money in web ads if television was not an option.
- Wireless has a 65 percent household penetration in the US.
- But, only one third of users have sent a text message in the last month...Unless you are young, in which case two thirds have text messaged.
- Only 7 percent of Americans actively read blogs (so congratulations to you reading this, you’re in the 93rd percentile).
- 50 percent of Americans are still totally unaware of blogs.
Both the futurist mensch and the analyst mensch provided much food for thought in Tuesday’s last session. By the way, a Mensch is a “good guy” according to Susan Bratton. And according to WikiPedia she’s right.
