Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble?
RogerMcNamee did a top notch job moderating a panel of experts, keeping them on topic and calling them out when they got too self promotional. Unlike most panels where the moderator is a secondary part of the panel, there to ask questions and make introductions, Roger really took an active part in the discussions. The panel even asked questions of him. The point of the session was to tell the audience about where the opportunities await for new and existing businesses looking for VC money or acquisition. Each panelist had a chance to introduce themselves through their answer to a question about what they are looking for and see as the next opportunity.
Safa Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray noted that much of the foucs today is on the young, but spending is done by older “big wallets” instead. Alex Gove, a VC from Walden Venture Capital, had to be reigned in by Roger as he moved into a bit of a pitch for what his firm is doing but did emphasize that early stage technology is where they are looking. He could not get specific, other than saying that like pornography, “you know it when you see it.” The other VC on the panel, Neil Garfinkel of Francisco Partners told the audience that they are not short sighted and the opportunities they look for are long term trends that might be four to six years out. William Park is an Entrepreneur fresh off the sale of Digital Impact to Acxiom. While he does not know what is next for him, he said that “people differentiate” the business and that the employees are as much value as the technology.
The panel talked a bit about the recent IAB shot across the bow of the panel based audience measurement firms. Safa commented that he was surprised how little has been done and asked why it is so difficult to know how many visitors a site gets. Roger commented that this would be a great opportunity for someone in the audience to figure this out and get it right. I’m not sure if I agree with this, as the question is not so much of knowledge, as in the issue of methodology and auditing. Other than making every person a member of their panel, there is no real solution to the limitations of panel based measurement. Add in privacy concerns and you run into hurdles for systems that might be able to validate this kind of information - or even get into the business themselves - right DoubleGoo?
Roger asked that if one of the important lessons is to sell to rich people, “why are all these 22 year-olds selling to 22 year-olds?” Adding that Facebook should be really valuable in 20 years! Safa commented on this, lamenting that although he gives MyYahoo a ton of information, he still gets ads for Wal-Mart. In fact, much of the commentary was on the lack of targeting because it not only improves the user experience, but it also is where the money is.
The panel talked a bit about international business and globalization. There were even a few audience questions relating to this area. There were some companies asking about foreign companies looking for funding, and about companies looking to expand to markets outside the USA. Roger noted the “Sequoia Rule” which evidently says that you only invest in companies within an hour of the office (in the Valley), which basically means that it is much more difficult for businesses who do not have local offices. Safa said that local companies have an advantage, but both Neil and Roger added that many firms have offices in other countries and that these are the ones to target.
The general tone of the panel is that the current upswing in the market is not a bubble ready to burst. The IPO market may not be hot, but investing is up and strong and the VC community is looking for great people and technology. Things are growing based on real business founded on valid business models with owners who have time and even their own money invested.
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